Week 11 in college football we have some very interesting match-ups. And just like last week, we have a great match-up that could decide the national championship picture. Let’s go!
1. #21 Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to take on #21 Georgia Tech. Which Georgia Tech is going to show up? The one that played Clemson or the one that played Virginia and Miami? This battle will decide who will take the lead of the coastal division in the ACC. The nation’s second leading rusher David Wilson is coming to town. He has put up 100+ yard rushing performances in 8 out of 9 games this year. Logan Thomas has been playing well this year but turns the ball over at inopportune times. He was great against Miami, but has steadily declined each week after that. Virginia Tech can’t play the way they played against Duke; or they will lose this game. No question. Bud Foster and his defense are ranked #12 in the country. This is ALWAYS the case. Georgia Tech has the daunting task of trying to run the ball on the fifth best rushing defense in the country. Something is going to have to give because Georgia Tech is the second ranked rushing team in the country. Tevin Washington (636), David Sims (564), and Orwin Smith (553) all are threats to score any time they touch the ball. That option attack is very tough to stop, but would you think any other team can stop them? Georgia Tech struggles against athletic LBs. Tariq Edwards, Gouveia-Winslow, Taylor are very athletic. Gouveia-Winslow is a bit undersized at 195. If Georgia Tech gets to him, it could be a problem. Although Virginia Tech maybe a bit undersized, they still can make enough plays to win this game. If Georgia Tech gets behind, they can’t play to catch up. I have Virginia Tech winning this game, 31-24.
2. After all the drama that is unraveling in Happy Valley, football seems very irrelevant. #12 Penn State is in the driver’s seat to play for in the first ever Big Ten Championship game. But they have a tough task with #19 Nebraska coming into town. Neither of the teams is really that good in my opinion. Penn State is still playing a two quarterback system, even though McGloin is really the better of the 2. Penn State does have one of the better running backs in Silas Redd and he is yet another back over 1000 yards at Penn State. They are statically the 8th ranked defense in the country surprisingly. But with Joe Paterno going through what he is going through right now, I don’t think that this game is going to matter much in Happy Valley; even if they suffer a loss. Nebraska is coming off of a shocking defeat against an under-rated Northwestern team. Nebraska’s defense is definitely not what it usually is. Nebraska’s defense is really not that great this year. Losing SR. DT Jared Crick was a crushing blow to this defense. Corey Cooper has promise, but is a freshman. He is still learning his position. Dennard, Cassidy, and Stafford have been average at best in coverage. Nebraska has the talent and has the experience for this defense to be dominating opponents. They just aren’t playing as a unit, and this is why they are getting beat. You can’t hold Michigan State to 3 points and then go and give up 28 Northwestern. Again, this will be a contest in which a pretty good run defense (Penn State) will go against a great rushing attack (Nebraska). Martinez is a great attacking threat at QB to score anytime he has the ball. Rex Burkhead is a tough runner and gets north & south very quick. I have Penn State winning this game. I think that Joe Pa’s team will rally around him being forced out and beat Nebraska. The campus needs this win. With Bradley taking over, this could help the university start healing. Penn State 17-14.
3. #20 Auburn goes to Athens to take on a HOT #15 Georgia. Georgia started off the season 0-2 and it didn’t look like Richt was going to finish the season. Well 7 wins later, Georgia is in the driver’s seat to get to Atlanta and play for the SEC championship. Did you or anyone else figure that was going to happen? Isaiah Crowell has been playing well and maybe the SEC freshman of the year with his current 689 yards. Aaron Murray has 23 tds and 2060 yards. Don’t look for those stats to get any worse with Auburn coming into town. If they can get Isaiah Crowell going early, then they can really get rolling against Auburn with the type of game that Aaron Murray. Georgia’s front 7 are a very stout unit. They have converted to a 3-4 defense and have two good young linebackers in the middle of the defense with Cornelius Washington and Christian Robinson. Georgia is ranked 7th in total defense, 8th against the run, and 24th against the pass. Those are very respectable numbers from a team that was taken apart by Boise State and against South Carolina. Todd Grantham has done a great job regrouping his guys and getting them refocused. Georgia controls its destiny, but faith in Georgia is still hard to come by these days. Auburn’s defense has steadily improved over the past few weeks, but they are still not that good. The QB situation in Auburn is a lot worse than we first thought. Frasier is the leader in waiting, but he is going to have to learn that playbook. In the meantime, Moseley has been named the starter of the offense and honestly, I don’t see how he is any more effective than Trotter. If Auburn wants to win, they are going to have to block Georgia’s front 7. Dyer is the player that should get the ball more. He has 989 yards this year, and McCalebb is a good complement to Dyer. There was a stretch where Auburn’s best WR Emory Blake, was injured. He has a tough task this week, going against the dynamic Brandon Boykins. If he picks off a pass, he will score. I wouldn’t kick him the ball either. Watch for him in the backfield. He can score from there as well. I just don’t think Auburn has the offense to beat Georgia. I have Georgia in this game 21-10.
4. The game of the week will be in Palo Alto as the #7 Oregon Ducks come to Stanford Stadium to take on Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinals. This game is very important for Alabama games. Because if Oregon beats Stanford, they will have one of the two scenarios to happen for them to have a rematch against #1 LSU. Stanford hasn’t faced a team this fast all season, and I don’t know if they can keep up. LaMichael James has been slowly put back into the rotation and is looking to have a big game against Stanford. But it’s not just James that you have to be concerned about; Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas have been sharing the load as well. Since the LSU fumbles, Thomas has been very reliable and really reminds me of DeSean Jackson with his game breaking speed. The kid has potential to be something special at Oregon. Another pleasant surprise has been Bryan Bennett at the QB position. Darron Thomas had hit a rough stretch in which he was injured and wasn’t really throwing the ball well. But Bennett has been playing very well in his place and is a bigger threat in the run game than Thomas. Look for Oregon’s Chip Kelly to mix him in as a different dimension against Stanford. They will need it because Stanford is tied for 3rd in the country against the run. But realistically, they haven’t played any run heavy teams. But Oregon is ranked 5th in the country against the run. Everyone knows about Andrew Luck (71.3% 2424 yards, 26 TDs) but what people don’t know is that Stepfan Taylor is a GOOD RB. He has 891 yards and had the game sealing TD against USC. Also people don’t see the attack that Stanford uses a pro-style offense. They block very well and very rarely do people get pressure on Luck. When you have great play at the TE position, it makes the QB’s job that much easier. Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, and Levine Toilolo are all very tall and very fast TEs. They block well. They are a LB’s worst nightmare with speed and a safety’s worst nightmare with the size. They make Andrew Luck’s job very easy. But missing in this game is Chris Owusu, who is out with a concussion. But as of right now, Toilolo has a head injury and is questionable and Zach Ertz is out with a knee injury. This could pose a problem for Stanford. Taylor may have to carry a bigger load of the offense. But last week Ryan Hewitt played a big role and maybe a TE in the making. I would rather pick the Alabama LSU game than this game. Because these teams aren’t known for defense. Just based on the fact that Stanford is really fighting for this opportunity to play for a title, I am going to give them a slight edge. I think Stanford will win this game 49-42 in double OT.
Week 11 will be a great week of football as storylines develop all around the country, as teams begin to separate themselves in the championship picture.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
LSU vs. Alabama: Final Analysis
Marquis Maze lined up in the wildcat formation. When the ball was snapped, everyone on the play thought it as a run. The guy that didn’t need to be fooled was outside LB Karnell Hatcher. He steps up to stop the run. Michael Williams ran open and the perfect play call was set up perfectly in a game where every play counted. Eric Reid was in man to man coverage with Brandon Gibson. He pulled off of his man when he saw the ball thrown to a wide open Williams. Maze put a little too much air under the pass. Williams went up and got both hands on the ball. As he was falling, Eric Reid went up and got his hand in between Williams and the ball. As Williams was falling Reid dislodged the ball from his hand and took control of the ball from Williams.
Interception! LSU ball on the 1 yard line.
This was just one of MANY big plays made defensively in this game.
On Saturday night, an epic defensive struggle took place in Tuscaloosa as #1 LSU goes into Bryant-Denny and defeats the #2 Alabama 9-6.
A lot of us writers and experts picked this high scoring game, expected trick plays from Les, and a decisive win for one of the teams. It just didn’t go down that way. Alabama’s defense played a wonderful football game. They allowed 239 yards on 58 offensive plays. LSU struggled to move the ball all night long. Alabama was getting pressure on Lee as well as Jefferson all night long. They also forced 2 turnovers on a team that only had 3 all year long. Jarrett Lee was reverted back to his old ways throwing interceptions with reckless abandon. Each one was into double coverage with either Lester or Barron. He couldn’t stand back there long enough to scan over the defense because Alabama was getting all the pressure they wanted on him. LSU was equally impressive on defense. They held one of the best backs in the country to under 100 yards rushing. They gave up 295 total yards on 60 plays and forced turnovers in crucial situations; none bigger than that Eric Reid interception.
But the defense is not the only facet of this game that decided this game.
Alabama was only 2-6 on FG opportunities. Cade Foster missed from 44, 50, and 52. Shelley had one blocked from 49 yards. But you can’t blame the game on this and this alone. Alabama did leave 12 points on the field. But you have to give LSU’s defense credit. When Alabama got into LSU territory, they tightened up tremendously. When LSU felt the fire behind them, they knuckled down and didn’t let Alabama get started any further up field. They gave up a big play to Trent on a leak out pass to Trent Richardson in the 2nd quarter. He broke 2 tackles and got down to the 20 yard line. They didn’t let Alabama get any more yards and forced a FG. After the 2nd interception Jared Lee threw, they tightened up and only gave up the three points. After a big run by Trent Richardson, Alabama had the perfect play dialed up. But the play by Eric Reid saved the game. If Williams catches that ball, it is NO doubt in my mind Alabama scores a TD and wins that game. Also if you watch that play over, you will see that Barkevious Mingo was bearing down hard on Maze so he had to throw that ball. If he didn’t, it would have been a big loss on the play. When it mattered, LSU stepped up and made the plays. So to blame the kicker is ridiculous and all you “fans” should be ashamed of yourselves. LSU also did a great job of keeping Richardson in check for most of the game. He had his flashes of brilliance in which you can expect from him. But as far as deciding the game, he didn’t have that kind of impact on the game. In OT he did not make the plays that he should have made. He dropped a screen pass in OT. He also missed a perfectly thrown ball by AJ McCarron. It was thrown and dropped right between his hands. Trent Richardson has to make those plays in order Alabama to beat the #1 team in the country.
AJ McCarron wasn’t that bad, but his decision making wasn’t the best. He rarely came off his first read and LSU capitalized on this when McCarron stared down his TE Smelley and Claiborne intercepted his pass to set LSU up for a field goal. The sack that he took in OT was the worst because he just laid down. He didn’t fight to throw the ball out of bounds, get rid of it, or anything. It was also very disappointing that Nick Saban didn’t try to move the ball on LSU with 1:25 seconds left on the clock. You never know what’s going to happen if you don’t try. I thought it was a tribute to just how much faith Nick Saban has in McCarron. He doesn’t trust him to make clutch plays at the end of the game.
Nick Saban was out coached this game as well. There is no reason that Maze should have been in the game to field that punt. Is an injured Maze better than the other kids on the team? Did Saban not trust anyone else on special teams to field the punt? This cost Alabama 30 yards. Going into overtime with Maze, Jones, and Kirkpatrick hurt? Going into OT with a QB that you do not have faith in? Thin at WR? With NO clear cut advantage? Saban should have taken his chances at the end of that game. No question. Most fans knew it was over at that point. Not going for it on 4th after the second missed FG? That would have been the smarter move. Also in overtime, Saban elected to throw the ball 3 straight times. GIVE THE BALL TO RICHARDSON! He is your Heisman candidate, let him win this game! WHY DO YOU THROW IT ON 3 STRAIGHT PLAYS???? I think this was the wrong time. Everyone thought that Les Miles was going to be the one that pulled the tricks out the bag. I think it was an excellent strategy to stay conservative. It kept them on their heels the entire game. They didn’t know what was coming. Adding Jordan Jefferson into the mix was genius. The option forced Alabama defense into a spot that it wasn’t used to being in. Thinking. They had to think about what they were going to do, causing them to play just a bit slower than they are used to playing, and this gave LSU just the opening they needed to make plays.
I think that LSU was the better team that night and had the better team overall. It showed that they were better prepared for the big game situations. When it came down to it, LSU just made more plays when it counted. Follow me on Twitter, @4thandInchesMag!!!! Stay tuned!
Interception! LSU ball on the 1 yard line.
This was just one of MANY big plays made defensively in this game.
On Saturday night, an epic defensive struggle took place in Tuscaloosa as #1 LSU goes into Bryant-Denny and defeats the #2 Alabama 9-6.
A lot of us writers and experts picked this high scoring game, expected trick plays from Les, and a decisive win for one of the teams. It just didn’t go down that way. Alabama’s defense played a wonderful football game. They allowed 239 yards on 58 offensive plays. LSU struggled to move the ball all night long. Alabama was getting pressure on Lee as well as Jefferson all night long. They also forced 2 turnovers on a team that only had 3 all year long. Jarrett Lee was reverted back to his old ways throwing interceptions with reckless abandon. Each one was into double coverage with either Lester or Barron. He couldn’t stand back there long enough to scan over the defense because Alabama was getting all the pressure they wanted on him. LSU was equally impressive on defense. They held one of the best backs in the country to under 100 yards rushing. They gave up 295 total yards on 60 plays and forced turnovers in crucial situations; none bigger than that Eric Reid interception.
But the defense is not the only facet of this game that decided this game.
Alabama was only 2-6 on FG opportunities. Cade Foster missed from 44, 50, and 52. Shelley had one blocked from 49 yards. But you can’t blame the game on this and this alone. Alabama did leave 12 points on the field. But you have to give LSU’s defense credit. When Alabama got into LSU territory, they tightened up tremendously. When LSU felt the fire behind them, they knuckled down and didn’t let Alabama get started any further up field. They gave up a big play to Trent on a leak out pass to Trent Richardson in the 2nd quarter. He broke 2 tackles and got down to the 20 yard line. They didn’t let Alabama get any more yards and forced a FG. After the 2nd interception Jared Lee threw, they tightened up and only gave up the three points. After a big run by Trent Richardson, Alabama had the perfect play dialed up. But the play by Eric Reid saved the game. If Williams catches that ball, it is NO doubt in my mind Alabama scores a TD and wins that game. Also if you watch that play over, you will see that Barkevious Mingo was bearing down hard on Maze so he had to throw that ball. If he didn’t, it would have been a big loss on the play. When it mattered, LSU stepped up and made the plays. So to blame the kicker is ridiculous and all you “fans” should be ashamed of yourselves. LSU also did a great job of keeping Richardson in check for most of the game. He had his flashes of brilliance in which you can expect from him. But as far as deciding the game, he didn’t have that kind of impact on the game. In OT he did not make the plays that he should have made. He dropped a screen pass in OT. He also missed a perfectly thrown ball by AJ McCarron. It was thrown and dropped right between his hands. Trent Richardson has to make those plays in order Alabama to beat the #1 team in the country.
AJ McCarron wasn’t that bad, but his decision making wasn’t the best. He rarely came off his first read and LSU capitalized on this when McCarron stared down his TE Smelley and Claiborne intercepted his pass to set LSU up for a field goal. The sack that he took in OT was the worst because he just laid down. He didn’t fight to throw the ball out of bounds, get rid of it, or anything. It was also very disappointing that Nick Saban didn’t try to move the ball on LSU with 1:25 seconds left on the clock. You never know what’s going to happen if you don’t try. I thought it was a tribute to just how much faith Nick Saban has in McCarron. He doesn’t trust him to make clutch plays at the end of the game.
Nick Saban was out coached this game as well. There is no reason that Maze should have been in the game to field that punt. Is an injured Maze better than the other kids on the team? Did Saban not trust anyone else on special teams to field the punt? This cost Alabama 30 yards. Going into overtime with Maze, Jones, and Kirkpatrick hurt? Going into OT with a QB that you do not have faith in? Thin at WR? With NO clear cut advantage? Saban should have taken his chances at the end of that game. No question. Most fans knew it was over at that point. Not going for it on 4th after the second missed FG? That would have been the smarter move. Also in overtime, Saban elected to throw the ball 3 straight times. GIVE THE BALL TO RICHARDSON! He is your Heisman candidate, let him win this game! WHY DO YOU THROW IT ON 3 STRAIGHT PLAYS???? I think this was the wrong time. Everyone thought that Les Miles was going to be the one that pulled the tricks out the bag. I think it was an excellent strategy to stay conservative. It kept them on their heels the entire game. They didn’t know what was coming. Adding Jordan Jefferson into the mix was genius. The option forced Alabama defense into a spot that it wasn’t used to being in. Thinking. They had to think about what they were going to do, causing them to play just a bit slower than they are used to playing, and this gave LSU just the opening they needed to make plays.
I think that LSU was the better team that night and had the better team overall. It showed that they were better prepared for the big game situations. When it came down to it, LSU just made more plays when it counted. Follow me on Twitter, @4thandInchesMag!!!! Stay tuned!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Analysis and Prediction for LSU vs. Alabama
When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, you have a clash for the ages. In Tuscaloosa this week we have just that happening. #1 LSU is heading to T-Town to face off against the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide. I have been battling back and forth of who I am going to take on this game. Each team has strengths and each has weaknesses; it’s just that whose weakness will be more critical in deciding this game.
Alabama is a great defense. They are one of the greatest statistically through 8 games: 180.5 yards, 45 yards a game rushing, 135.63 passing yards per game, 48% completions, and 6.88 points per game. They are disciplined and don’t get penalized much. They can control the clock with an amazing running attack. They have a great return man in Maze that can change this game in the blink of an eye. The weaknesses of Alabama are hidden by how great the rest of the defense is. I have said all season that Dre’ Kirkpatrick is the weak link of the Alabama secondary. I noticed that all the Alabama fans that I follow on twitter were quick to point that out against Florida. He started playing 10 yards off. Charlie Weiss didn’t change the game plan start throwing quick routes; he kept throwing deep routes. This was going right into Saban’s game plan. LSU runs a lot of slants and outs. If they decide to play off, LSU is going to go to the slant game. This will force Alabama to come up. Milner lost his starting spot because he was getting beat. When Alabama goes to the Nickel, Menzie moves inside, while Milner comes outside with Kirkpatrick. If this happens, the target will be Milner. I don’t think Randle will be catching bombs on Alabama like he did against Auburn; but Randle is NOT a good match up for Kirkpatrick or for Milner. Here’s why. Kirkpatrick struggles against big WRs. Look at the game against South Carolina’s Alshon Jefferies. If he can’t rough them up at the line, he struggles. Milner was beaten all last year. He was constantly picked on and this happened in camp this year as well. This is why he isn’t starting. Another weakness that I have seen on film against Alabama is the fact that Alabama’s defensive backs are peeking in the backfield entirely too much trying to get a bead on the QB’s pass in order to break it up. This has been successful all year, except the one play against Fl. A good offensive coordinator can see this and will try to take advantage of this with play action to make them come up. Odell Beckham has the speed to run past anyone in the secondary. One false step by the Alabama safeties and they will be torched. Randle, Shepard, and Beckham all have the tools to work and get open. This is the thing, though. Alabama hides their deficiencies and errors in the backfield with the power of their front four. Anyone that can block the blitz usually can pick Alabama apart in the secondary. I honestly think that with LSU getting P.J. Lonergan back was huge for the LSU offensive line. It allows for T. Bob Hebert to move back to his natural position of guard for this game. LSU’s offensive line has been great all season long. IF they can block the Alabama blitz and give Lee or Jefferson time. The secondary could have a long night.
AJ McCarron may just decide this game. Now he has been playing ok, but he has not seen a secondary as talented as the one that he is going to see on Saturday. He made some bad decisions in each of the 8 games that he played in where against better athletes, they would have been interceptions. He is rarely coming off his first read and really didn’t get his feet wet against Tennessee until the second half. If Tennessee could have gotten some pressure on him, that game could have gone very badly for Alabama. Against LSU, they will get pressure. They also have some real life goons in that secondary. I really feel like this is the key to Alabama’s success. You can’t let Trent Richardson beat you. LSU WILL load the box and force McCarron to make throws against the best CB tandem in the country. I don’t think that it is going to happen.
Alabama also has a kicking game by committee. Defensive games usually come down to a FG. If these guys don’t get the job done, they could be the goat of this game and go down in history in the wrong way. Cody Mandell and Jay Williams will HAVE to make sure that they make their kicks on this big stage.
Now to LSU. They have their flaws as well.
All you hear about with LSU is their depth at defensive line and at defensive back. They rotate 10 defensive lineman and 8 defensive backs. Well you don’t hear much about their LBs. And there is a reason why you don’t. They aren’t that good. West Virginia threw for a lot of yards on LSU; 463 to be exact. What Dana Holgorsen did was attack the middle of the field. LSU’s LB core is not good in coverage. They really don’t get a lot of tackle opportunities anyhow because of the pressure that LSU gets with the front four. This is how Les Miles masks his deficiency on defense. Francois, the starting OLB only has 5 tackles on the year. Baker the staring MLB has 33, and Hatcher has 18. This won’t cut it against Alabama. This plays to Alabama’s strengths. They run crossing routes, seams with the TEs, outs with the TEs and square in routes with the WRs. If LSU can’t cover the intermediate stuff any better than they did against West Virginia, it can be a long game for them. Francois, Baker and Hatcher are going to have to play the game of their lives in order to stop Alabama from doing what they want to do. You don’t want to have a LB deficiency when you have the one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the country and in my eyes the best running back in the country playing against your team.
Another weakness in LSU is the slow starts. They can’t let Alabama stick around. Their depth has just worn teams out. They can’t expect for that to happen against Alabama ; 6-3 lead at halftime against Mississippi State, 14-0 halftime lead against Kentucky, 6-3 after the first quarter against Oregon. They have to come out. Establish the tone that they want to set and keep it rolling. If they get down against Alabama, it will be very hard to get out of a hole. This team is too good up front to not set the tempo. If Alabama steps up to the task of getting an early lead, LSU can struggle for the rest of the game.
One more thing that I think that Alabama will take advantage of is an aggressive defensive line. It is no question that LSU has the best defensive line in the country. But Alabama is the best screen team in the country. If LSU’s front four doesn’t watch it, they can drop the ball right behind them with a convoy of offensive lineman in front of Trent Richardson. Also, something else the McElwain needs to do is run the draw play. This is how you tone down a great defensive line; keep them off balance and worrying about ever scenario. You can’t let them dictate the game. If you do, McCarron will have a long night.
LSU has a definite advantage in the special team area. They covered Auburn’s Tre’ Mason and didn’t let him dictate the game. As good as Maze is, I don’t think that even he will be able to allude the excellent kick and punt coverage that LSU displays week in and week out. Brad Wing does a great job punting bombs down the field. He has 11 punts of 50 yards or better and is averaging 44.4 yards per punt.
At the end of the day, I just think that AJ McCarron will turn the ball over. This is going to be the deciding factor in the game. I think that the game against Oregon and the game against West Virginia were to prepare LSU for this game. I feel that they are just more big game ready. I have LSU winning this game, 24-17. I just think that LSU has the more complete team and will force a crucial turnover in a critical juncture in the game. AJ McCarron still has some growing to do. I just don’t think he can win that matchup against that secondary. Stay tuned for my post game analysis on this game. Follow me @4thandInchesMag on Twitter!
Alabama is a great defense. They are one of the greatest statistically through 8 games: 180.5 yards, 45 yards a game rushing, 135.63 passing yards per game, 48% completions, and 6.88 points per game. They are disciplined and don’t get penalized much. They can control the clock with an amazing running attack. They have a great return man in Maze that can change this game in the blink of an eye. The weaknesses of Alabama are hidden by how great the rest of the defense is. I have said all season that Dre’ Kirkpatrick is the weak link of the Alabama secondary. I noticed that all the Alabama fans that I follow on twitter were quick to point that out against Florida. He started playing 10 yards off. Charlie Weiss didn’t change the game plan start throwing quick routes; he kept throwing deep routes. This was going right into Saban’s game plan. LSU runs a lot of slants and outs. If they decide to play off, LSU is going to go to the slant game. This will force Alabama to come up. Milner lost his starting spot because he was getting beat. When Alabama goes to the Nickel, Menzie moves inside, while Milner comes outside with Kirkpatrick. If this happens, the target will be Milner. I don’t think Randle will be catching bombs on Alabama like he did against Auburn; but Randle is NOT a good match up for Kirkpatrick or for Milner. Here’s why. Kirkpatrick struggles against big WRs. Look at the game against South Carolina’s Alshon Jefferies. If he can’t rough them up at the line, he struggles. Milner was beaten all last year. He was constantly picked on and this happened in camp this year as well. This is why he isn’t starting. Another weakness that I have seen on film against Alabama is the fact that Alabama’s defensive backs are peeking in the backfield entirely too much trying to get a bead on the QB’s pass in order to break it up. This has been successful all year, except the one play against Fl. A good offensive coordinator can see this and will try to take advantage of this with play action to make them come up. Odell Beckham has the speed to run past anyone in the secondary. One false step by the Alabama safeties and they will be torched. Randle, Shepard, and Beckham all have the tools to work and get open. This is the thing, though. Alabama hides their deficiencies and errors in the backfield with the power of their front four. Anyone that can block the blitz usually can pick Alabama apart in the secondary. I honestly think that with LSU getting P.J. Lonergan back was huge for the LSU offensive line. It allows for T. Bob Hebert to move back to his natural position of guard for this game. LSU’s offensive line has been great all season long. IF they can block the Alabama blitz and give Lee or Jefferson time. The secondary could have a long night.
AJ McCarron may just decide this game. Now he has been playing ok, but he has not seen a secondary as talented as the one that he is going to see on Saturday. He made some bad decisions in each of the 8 games that he played in where against better athletes, they would have been interceptions. He is rarely coming off his first read and really didn’t get his feet wet against Tennessee until the second half. If Tennessee could have gotten some pressure on him, that game could have gone very badly for Alabama. Against LSU, they will get pressure. They also have some real life goons in that secondary. I really feel like this is the key to Alabama’s success. You can’t let Trent Richardson beat you. LSU WILL load the box and force McCarron to make throws against the best CB tandem in the country. I don’t think that it is going to happen.
Alabama also has a kicking game by committee. Defensive games usually come down to a FG. If these guys don’t get the job done, they could be the goat of this game and go down in history in the wrong way. Cody Mandell and Jay Williams will HAVE to make sure that they make their kicks on this big stage.
Now to LSU. They have their flaws as well.
All you hear about with LSU is their depth at defensive line and at defensive back. They rotate 10 defensive lineman and 8 defensive backs. Well you don’t hear much about their LBs. And there is a reason why you don’t. They aren’t that good. West Virginia threw for a lot of yards on LSU; 463 to be exact. What Dana Holgorsen did was attack the middle of the field. LSU’s LB core is not good in coverage. They really don’t get a lot of tackle opportunities anyhow because of the pressure that LSU gets with the front four. This is how Les Miles masks his deficiency on defense. Francois, the starting OLB only has 5 tackles on the year. Baker the staring MLB has 33, and Hatcher has 18. This won’t cut it against Alabama. This plays to Alabama’s strengths. They run crossing routes, seams with the TEs, outs with the TEs and square in routes with the WRs. If LSU can’t cover the intermediate stuff any better than they did against West Virginia, it can be a long game for them. Francois, Baker and Hatcher are going to have to play the game of their lives in order to stop Alabama from doing what they want to do. You don’t want to have a LB deficiency when you have the one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the country and in my eyes the best running back in the country playing against your team.
Another weakness in LSU is the slow starts. They can’t let Alabama stick around. Their depth has just worn teams out. They can’t expect for that to happen against Alabama ; 6-3 lead at halftime against Mississippi State, 14-0 halftime lead against Kentucky, 6-3 after the first quarter against Oregon. They have to come out. Establish the tone that they want to set and keep it rolling. If they get down against Alabama, it will be very hard to get out of a hole. This team is too good up front to not set the tempo. If Alabama steps up to the task of getting an early lead, LSU can struggle for the rest of the game.
One more thing that I think that Alabama will take advantage of is an aggressive defensive line. It is no question that LSU has the best defensive line in the country. But Alabama is the best screen team in the country. If LSU’s front four doesn’t watch it, they can drop the ball right behind them with a convoy of offensive lineman in front of Trent Richardson. Also, something else the McElwain needs to do is run the draw play. This is how you tone down a great defensive line; keep them off balance and worrying about ever scenario. You can’t let them dictate the game. If you do, McCarron will have a long night.
LSU has a definite advantage in the special team area. They covered Auburn’s Tre’ Mason and didn’t let him dictate the game. As good as Maze is, I don’t think that even he will be able to allude the excellent kick and punt coverage that LSU displays week in and week out. Brad Wing does a great job punting bombs down the field. He has 11 punts of 50 yards or better and is averaging 44.4 yards per punt.
At the end of the day, I just think that AJ McCarron will turn the ball over. This is going to be the deciding factor in the game. I think that the game against Oregon and the game against West Virginia were to prepare LSU for this game. I feel that they are just more big game ready. I have LSU winning this game, 24-17. I just think that LSU has the more complete team and will force a crucial turnover in a critical juncture in the game. AJ McCarron still has some growing to do. I just don’t think he can win that matchup against that secondary. Stay tuned for my post game analysis on this game. Follow me @4thandInchesMag on Twitter!
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
The Strengths of the Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama vs. LSU game will be one of the most physical ball games to be played this year. Great offensive and defensive lines will set the tone for this match-up to determine the leader of the SEC West; one of the strongest divisions in college football. The SEC West maybe stronger than some NFL divisions! This is the second of a two part series highlighting the strengths of each team. Now up to plate, Alabama.
1. Running Backs: Do I need to say more? The Heisman trophy candidate is a rare blend of power and speed. The first guy NEVER brings him down. He wears you down through the game. He is not the tallest back (listed at 5”11), so his compact running style is conducive to him being so hard to bring down. It also helps him get behind those huge offensive linemen that he runs behind. His thighs are bigger than most super models, and he never fumbles the football. He is also very elusive. No other play is more memorable than the move that he put on Senquez Golson from Ole Miss. He displayed all of talents that he possesses on his run. He breaks 3 tackles, out runs the defense, then puts a move that crippled this young man all on one play. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLQOKjH_S3I) He is a horse. A big game against LSU will put him ahead of Andrew Luck for the Heisman trophy. Richardson is great blocker and can catch the ball out of the backfield very well. Eddie Lacy is a horse as well. He comes in and gives you the exact same style of running, power, speed, and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield better than Richardson. Since he has gotten rid of that case of the fumbles, the kid has been an awesome complement to Richardson. Just when you think that you are in the clear, they bring in big Jalston Fowler to try to bring down. The THIRD string back weighs in at 246 lbs. A load to bring down for the most fearsome of defenders. LSU has a great front line, but if they over run the lanes or past the running backs, they will have another game like they had against Auburn last year; giving up run after run for big yardage. This is the key to Alabama’s offense. If Richardson gets rolling, look out. It will be a LONG EVENING for the LSU defense.
2. Linebackers: Alabama has the deepest linebacker unit in the country. Courtney Upshaw, Dont’a Hightower, Nico Johnson, Jerrell Harris, C.J. Mosley, Trey DePriest, Tana Patrick, Chris Jordan, Adrian Hubbard, Xzavier Dickson, Alex Watkins, and Adrian Hubbard. My goodness. Most of these guys were 4 and 5 star recruits, can you imagine seeing Adrian Hubbard at 6”6 lining up at LB and him coming to blitz you?!? Dont’a Hightower is the total package at Inside Linebacker. He runs like a deer, can read a defense before the snap almost as good as Rolando McClain, covers well for his size, and can bring the blues to any QB that sits back there long enough to see him coming. Courtney Upshaw is a bull and can’t be blocked by one man. He plays the game like a Steelers LB already. He is a matchup problem against any college lineman right now. C.J. Mosley is the best cover LB in football. He can run with ANYONE; speedsters at RB, TEs, and WRs. The linebackers are the deepest group of players that Alabama has. They have a guy that can come right in and give them the same effort that the guy ahead of him gives. LSU’s offensive line has its work cut out for them. This is a very tough defense to block from the LB spot. The scheme is great for these guys to flourish. That is why right now to me, Alabama is the new linebacker U. I haven’t seen a set of backers this good in a long time. I hope LSU is disciplined at offensive line; if not this group of guys will have you jumping off sides all game long. You never know where the pressure is coming from. And if you do see the pressure coming, it doesn’t matter. You can’t block it anyway.
3. Offensive Line: Vlachos, Steen, Warmack, Fluker, and Jones are 5 of the best in the business. Jones is the most versatile offensive lineman in the country. He has good feet to play tackle and consistently seals his guy off at the point of attack. He also has the strength and the smarts to play guard as well. If needed, I think he could probably play center as well. Six out of 10 times, the run play is going to his side because of the job he consistently does in dominating his man. He is definitely the front runner for the Rimington and the Outland trophies. Fluker has been coming on well this season. There were thoughts that the freshman Kouandjio would take his spot. The line does a great job moving their men out of position. They know they don’t have to hold their guys long, because they have some outstanding backs coming through the lanes they create. If LSU’s rush is too aggressive, it will play right into the hands of Alabama. They will just draw LSU. And if this happens, LSU’s LBs are not the strengths of their defense. If they attack them, this will decide the game.
4. Saban: Many see Saban as the best coach in the land. Who can argue with that? He is bringing the recruits in and he is winning the games. He coaches his team very well and stays one step ahead of the opposition. He is one of the best of keeping his team calm and under control in big game situations. This is as big as they come especially against his old team. He is intense and takes no excuses. He can game plan for any type of defense. If Alabama gets up early, don’t look for the conservative approach. I expect for him to make a statement in this game. He and Kirby Smart keep opposing offenses off balance throughout the game. He runs a well oiled machine. If Alabama does take the L, it won’t be Saban’s fault. His team will be ready to play. Les Miles better have his rabbit foot, horse shoes, four leaf clovers and Lucky from the Lucky Charms box. If not, one bad play call in this game against Saban can cost him the game.
5. Bryant-Denny Stadium: The aura around this stadium is something that anyone can feel just standing in front of it; I felt it and I am not even a fan! With 101,821 screaming fans for the biggest contest that the stadium has seen in years, this game will be tough to win for LSU. This is one of the biggest fan bases in the country. Alabama football is second only to religion in these parts. Night game + Bryant-Denny= disaster for most teams coming in here. With the Tide feeding off of this, don’t look for LSU to have a good night.
6. Defense: Telling you that Alabama has a great defense is like telling you that Tony Parker was an idiot for cheating on Eva Longoria. Alabama ranks at the top of EVERY defensive statistical category. They are allowing 180.5 yards/game; the next closest team is at 228.75. That is almost a 50 yard difference. They are allowing 44.88 yards rushing/game; the next closest team is 72.71. That is a full 27.83 yards difference in the next team. They are #2 in pass defense at 135.63 yards per. They are allowing 48.15% completions per game. Barron, Lester, Kirkpatrick and Menzie are one of the best defense backfields in the land. Two of the four (Barron and Kirkpatrick) are up for the Thorpe award, for the nation’s best defensive back. Alabama is completely dominating teams from the defensive side of the ball. Alabama is allowing 6.88 points per game the next closest team is 10.00 per. They are statistically the best defense in the land; with those numbers, you can’t deny that they are the best defense in the land. It doesn’t matter who they have or have not played.
7. Special Teams: Marquis Maze is one of the most dynamic return men in the country. If he gets a lane, you can hang it up. The kid is averaging 8.9 yards a return. He can change games and dictate field position. If the guy gets a chance, he can determine the outcome of the game by setting Alabama up with short fields. He also has 238 kickoff return yards on 9 attempts. The guy is a game breaker at this position. If LSU doesn’t come down and put a hat on him quickly, it can definitely decide the game.
Alabama hasn’t played the toughest of schedules, but that doesn’t change the fact that this team has been the most dominate with the opponents that it has faced. No one has been able to move the ball against these guys. LSU isn’t best offensive team and gets off to slow starts. If they can force LSU into a turnover, they can jump out early. This is lining up to be a struggle of defenses. If Alabama plays the type of game it is capable of playing, Alabama can win this game by 14 points and hold LSU to its lowest point total of the year.
1. Running Backs: Do I need to say more? The Heisman trophy candidate is a rare blend of power and speed. The first guy NEVER brings him down. He wears you down through the game. He is not the tallest back (listed at 5”11), so his compact running style is conducive to him being so hard to bring down. It also helps him get behind those huge offensive linemen that he runs behind. His thighs are bigger than most super models, and he never fumbles the football. He is also very elusive. No other play is more memorable than the move that he put on Senquez Golson from Ole Miss. He displayed all of talents that he possesses on his run. He breaks 3 tackles, out runs the defense, then puts a move that crippled this young man all on one play. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLQOKjH_S3I) He is a horse. A big game against LSU will put him ahead of Andrew Luck for the Heisman trophy. Richardson is great blocker and can catch the ball out of the backfield very well. Eddie Lacy is a horse as well. He comes in and gives you the exact same style of running, power, speed, and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield better than Richardson. Since he has gotten rid of that case of the fumbles, the kid has been an awesome complement to Richardson. Just when you think that you are in the clear, they bring in big Jalston Fowler to try to bring down. The THIRD string back weighs in at 246 lbs. A load to bring down for the most fearsome of defenders. LSU has a great front line, but if they over run the lanes or past the running backs, they will have another game like they had against Auburn last year; giving up run after run for big yardage. This is the key to Alabama’s offense. If Richardson gets rolling, look out. It will be a LONG EVENING for the LSU defense.
2. Linebackers: Alabama has the deepest linebacker unit in the country. Courtney Upshaw, Dont’a Hightower, Nico Johnson, Jerrell Harris, C.J. Mosley, Trey DePriest, Tana Patrick, Chris Jordan, Adrian Hubbard, Xzavier Dickson, Alex Watkins, and Adrian Hubbard. My goodness. Most of these guys were 4 and 5 star recruits, can you imagine seeing Adrian Hubbard at 6”6 lining up at LB and him coming to blitz you?!? Dont’a Hightower is the total package at Inside Linebacker. He runs like a deer, can read a defense before the snap almost as good as Rolando McClain, covers well for his size, and can bring the blues to any QB that sits back there long enough to see him coming. Courtney Upshaw is a bull and can’t be blocked by one man. He plays the game like a Steelers LB already. He is a matchup problem against any college lineman right now. C.J. Mosley is the best cover LB in football. He can run with ANYONE; speedsters at RB, TEs, and WRs. The linebackers are the deepest group of players that Alabama has. They have a guy that can come right in and give them the same effort that the guy ahead of him gives. LSU’s offensive line has its work cut out for them. This is a very tough defense to block from the LB spot. The scheme is great for these guys to flourish. That is why right now to me, Alabama is the new linebacker U. I haven’t seen a set of backers this good in a long time. I hope LSU is disciplined at offensive line; if not this group of guys will have you jumping off sides all game long. You never know where the pressure is coming from. And if you do see the pressure coming, it doesn’t matter. You can’t block it anyway.
3. Offensive Line: Vlachos, Steen, Warmack, Fluker, and Jones are 5 of the best in the business. Jones is the most versatile offensive lineman in the country. He has good feet to play tackle and consistently seals his guy off at the point of attack. He also has the strength and the smarts to play guard as well. If needed, I think he could probably play center as well. Six out of 10 times, the run play is going to his side because of the job he consistently does in dominating his man. He is definitely the front runner for the Rimington and the Outland trophies. Fluker has been coming on well this season. There were thoughts that the freshman Kouandjio would take his spot. The line does a great job moving their men out of position. They know they don’t have to hold their guys long, because they have some outstanding backs coming through the lanes they create. If LSU’s rush is too aggressive, it will play right into the hands of Alabama. They will just draw LSU. And if this happens, LSU’s LBs are not the strengths of their defense. If they attack them, this will decide the game.
4. Saban: Many see Saban as the best coach in the land. Who can argue with that? He is bringing the recruits in and he is winning the games. He coaches his team very well and stays one step ahead of the opposition. He is one of the best of keeping his team calm and under control in big game situations. This is as big as they come especially against his old team. He is intense and takes no excuses. He can game plan for any type of defense. If Alabama gets up early, don’t look for the conservative approach. I expect for him to make a statement in this game. He and Kirby Smart keep opposing offenses off balance throughout the game. He runs a well oiled machine. If Alabama does take the L, it won’t be Saban’s fault. His team will be ready to play. Les Miles better have his rabbit foot, horse shoes, four leaf clovers and Lucky from the Lucky Charms box. If not, one bad play call in this game against Saban can cost him the game.
5. Bryant-Denny Stadium: The aura around this stadium is something that anyone can feel just standing in front of it; I felt it and I am not even a fan! With 101,821 screaming fans for the biggest contest that the stadium has seen in years, this game will be tough to win for LSU. This is one of the biggest fan bases in the country. Alabama football is second only to religion in these parts. Night game + Bryant-Denny= disaster for most teams coming in here. With the Tide feeding off of this, don’t look for LSU to have a good night.
6. Defense: Telling you that Alabama has a great defense is like telling you that Tony Parker was an idiot for cheating on Eva Longoria. Alabama ranks at the top of EVERY defensive statistical category. They are allowing 180.5 yards/game; the next closest team is at 228.75. That is almost a 50 yard difference. They are allowing 44.88 yards rushing/game; the next closest team is 72.71. That is a full 27.83 yards difference in the next team. They are #2 in pass defense at 135.63 yards per. They are allowing 48.15% completions per game. Barron, Lester, Kirkpatrick and Menzie are one of the best defense backfields in the land. Two of the four (Barron and Kirkpatrick) are up for the Thorpe award, for the nation’s best defensive back. Alabama is completely dominating teams from the defensive side of the ball. Alabama is allowing 6.88 points per game the next closest team is 10.00 per. They are statistically the best defense in the land; with those numbers, you can’t deny that they are the best defense in the land. It doesn’t matter who they have or have not played.
7. Special Teams: Marquis Maze is one of the most dynamic return men in the country. If he gets a lane, you can hang it up. The kid is averaging 8.9 yards a return. He can change games and dictate field position. If the guy gets a chance, he can determine the outcome of the game by setting Alabama up with short fields. He also has 238 kickoff return yards on 9 attempts. The guy is a game breaker at this position. If LSU doesn’t come down and put a hat on him quickly, it can definitely decide the game.
Alabama hasn’t played the toughest of schedules, but that doesn’t change the fact that this team has been the most dominate with the opponents that it has faced. No one has been able to move the ball against these guys. LSU isn’t best offensive team and gets off to slow starts. If they can force LSU into a turnover, they can jump out early. This is lining up to be a struggle of defenses. If Alabama plays the type of game it is capable of playing, Alabama can win this game by 14 points and hold LSU to its lowest point total of the year.
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