Thursday, November 10, 2011

3rd and Goal: Week 11 Preview

Week 11 in college football we have some very interesting match-ups. And just like last week, we have a great match-up that could decide the national championship picture. Let’s go!

1. #21 Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to take on #21 Georgia Tech. Which Georgia Tech is going to show up? The one that played Clemson or the one that played Virginia and Miami? This battle will decide who will take the lead of the coastal division in the ACC. The nation’s second leading rusher David Wilson is coming to town. He has put up 100+ yard rushing performances in 8 out of 9 games this year. Logan Thomas has been playing well this year but turns the ball over at inopportune times. He was great against Miami, but has steadily declined each week after that. Virginia Tech can’t play the way they played against Duke; or they will lose this game. No question. Bud Foster and his defense are ranked #12 in the country. This is ALWAYS the case. Georgia Tech has the daunting task of trying to run the ball on the fifth best rushing defense in the country. Something is going to have to give because Georgia Tech is the second ranked rushing team in the country. Tevin Washington (636), David Sims (564), and Orwin Smith (553) all are threats to score any time they touch the ball. That option attack is very tough to stop, but would you think any other team can stop them? Georgia Tech struggles against athletic LBs. Tariq Edwards, Gouveia-Winslow, Taylor are very athletic. Gouveia-Winslow is a bit undersized at 195. If Georgia Tech gets to him, it could be a problem. Although Virginia Tech maybe a bit undersized, they still can make enough plays to win this game. If Georgia Tech gets behind, they can’t play to catch up. I have Virginia Tech winning this game, 31-24.

2. After all the drama that is unraveling in Happy Valley, football seems very irrelevant. #12 Penn State is in the driver’s seat to play for in the first ever Big Ten Championship game. But they have a tough task with #19 Nebraska coming into town. Neither of the teams is really that good in my opinion. Penn State is still playing a two quarterback system, even though McGloin is really the better of the 2. Penn State does have one of the better running backs in Silas Redd and he is yet another back over 1000 yards at Penn State. They are statically the 8th ranked defense in the country surprisingly. But with Joe Paterno going through what he is going through right now, I don’t think that this game is going to matter much in Happy Valley; even if they suffer a loss. Nebraska is coming off of a shocking defeat against an under-rated Northwestern team. Nebraska’s defense is definitely not what it usually is. Nebraska’s defense is really not that great this year. Losing SR. DT Jared Crick was a crushing blow to this defense. Corey Cooper has promise, but is a freshman. He is still learning his position. Dennard, Cassidy, and Stafford have been average at best in coverage. Nebraska has the talent and has the experience for this defense to be dominating opponents. They just aren’t playing as a unit, and this is why they are getting beat. You can’t hold Michigan State to 3 points and then go and give up 28 Northwestern. Again, this will be a contest in which a pretty good run defense (Penn State) will go against a great rushing attack (Nebraska). Martinez is a great attacking threat at QB to score anytime he has the ball. Rex Burkhead is a tough runner and gets north & south very quick. I have Penn State winning this game. I think that Joe Pa’s team will rally around him being forced out and beat Nebraska. The campus needs this win. With Bradley taking over, this could help the university start healing. Penn State 17-14.

3. #20 Auburn goes to Athens to take on a HOT #15 Georgia. Georgia started off the season 0-2 and it didn’t look like Richt was going to finish the season. Well 7 wins later, Georgia is in the driver’s seat to get to Atlanta and play for the SEC championship. Did you or anyone else figure that was going to happen? Isaiah Crowell has been playing well and maybe the SEC freshman of the year with his current 689 yards. Aaron Murray has 23 tds and 2060 yards. Don’t look for those stats to get any worse with Auburn coming into town. If they can get Isaiah Crowell going early, then they can really get rolling against Auburn with the type of game that Aaron Murray. Georgia’s front 7 are a very stout unit. They have converted to a 3-4 defense and have two good young linebackers in the middle of the defense with Cornelius Washington and Christian Robinson. Georgia is ranked 7th in total defense, 8th against the run, and 24th against the pass. Those are very respectable numbers from a team that was taken apart by Boise State and against South Carolina. Todd Grantham has done a great job regrouping his guys and getting them refocused. Georgia controls its destiny, but faith in Georgia is still hard to come by these days. Auburn’s defense has steadily improved over the past few weeks, but they are still not that good. The QB situation in Auburn is a lot worse than we first thought. Frasier is the leader in waiting, but he is going to have to learn that playbook. In the meantime, Moseley has been named the starter of the offense and honestly, I don’t see how he is any more effective than Trotter. If Auburn wants to win, they are going to have to block Georgia’s front 7. Dyer is the player that should get the ball more. He has 989 yards this year, and McCalebb is a good complement to Dyer. There was a stretch where Auburn’s best WR Emory Blake, was injured. He has a tough task this week, going against the dynamic Brandon Boykins. If he picks off a pass, he will score. I wouldn’t kick him the ball either. Watch for him in the backfield. He can score from there as well. I just don’t think Auburn has the offense to beat Georgia. I have Georgia in this game 21-10.

4. The game of the week will be in Palo Alto as the #7 Oregon Ducks come to Stanford Stadium to take on Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinals. This game is very important for Alabama games. Because if Oregon beats Stanford, they will have one of the two scenarios to happen for them to have a rematch against #1 LSU. Stanford hasn’t faced a team this fast all season, and I don’t know if they can keep up. LaMichael James has been slowly put back into the rotation and is looking to have a big game against Stanford. But it’s not just James that you have to be concerned about; Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas have been sharing the load as well. Since the LSU fumbles, Thomas has been very reliable and really reminds me of DeSean Jackson with his game breaking speed. The kid has potential to be something special at Oregon. Another pleasant surprise has been Bryan Bennett at the QB position. Darron Thomas had hit a rough stretch in which he was injured and wasn’t really throwing the ball well. But Bennett has been playing very well in his place and is a bigger threat in the run game than Thomas. Look for Oregon’s Chip Kelly to mix him in as a different dimension against Stanford. They will need it because Stanford is tied for 3rd in the country against the run. But realistically, they haven’t played any run heavy teams. But Oregon is ranked 5th in the country against the run. Everyone knows about Andrew Luck (71.3% 2424 yards, 26 TDs) but what people don’t know is that Stepfan Taylor is a GOOD RB. He has 891 yards and had the game sealing TD against USC. Also people don’t see the attack that Stanford uses a pro-style offense. They block very well and very rarely do people get pressure on Luck. When you have great play at the TE position, it makes the QB’s job that much easier. Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, and Levine Toilolo are all very tall and very fast TEs. They block well. They are a LB’s worst nightmare with speed and a safety’s worst nightmare with the size. They make Andrew Luck’s job very easy. But missing in this game is Chris Owusu, who is out with a concussion. But as of right now, Toilolo has a head injury and is questionable and Zach Ertz is out with a knee injury. This could pose a problem for Stanford. Taylor may have to carry a bigger load of the offense. But last week Ryan Hewitt played a big role and maybe a TE in the making. I would rather pick the Alabama LSU game than this game. Because these teams aren’t known for defense. Just based on the fact that Stanford is really fighting for this opportunity to play for a title, I am going to give them a slight edge. I think Stanford will win this game 49-42 in double OT.

Week 11 will be a great week of football as storylines develop all around the country, as teams begin to separate themselves in the championship picture.

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