When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, you have a clash for the ages. In Tuscaloosa this week we have just that happening. #1 LSU is heading to T-Town to face off against the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide. I have been battling back and forth of who I am going to take on this game. Each team has strengths and each has weaknesses; it’s just that whose weakness will be more critical in deciding this game.
Alabama is a great defense. They are one of the greatest statistically through 8 games: 180.5 yards, 45 yards a game rushing, 135.63 passing yards per game, 48% completions, and 6.88 points per game. They are disciplined and don’t get penalized much. They can control the clock with an amazing running attack. They have a great return man in Maze that can change this game in the blink of an eye. The weaknesses of Alabama are hidden by how great the rest of the defense is. I have said all season that Dre’ Kirkpatrick is the weak link of the Alabama secondary. I noticed that all the Alabama fans that I follow on twitter were quick to point that out against Florida. He started playing 10 yards off. Charlie Weiss didn’t change the game plan start throwing quick routes; he kept throwing deep routes. This was going right into Saban’s game plan. LSU runs a lot of slants and outs. If they decide to play off, LSU is going to go to the slant game. This will force Alabama to come up. Milner lost his starting spot because he was getting beat. When Alabama goes to the Nickel, Menzie moves inside, while Milner comes outside with Kirkpatrick. If this happens, the target will be Milner. I don’t think Randle will be catching bombs on Alabama like he did against Auburn; but Randle is NOT a good match up for Kirkpatrick or for Milner. Here’s why. Kirkpatrick struggles against big WRs. Look at the game against South Carolina’s Alshon Jefferies. If he can’t rough them up at the line, he struggles. Milner was beaten all last year. He was constantly picked on and this happened in camp this year as well. This is why he isn’t starting. Another weakness that I have seen on film against Alabama is the fact that Alabama’s defensive backs are peeking in the backfield entirely too much trying to get a bead on the QB’s pass in order to break it up. This has been successful all year, except the one play against Fl. A good offensive coordinator can see this and will try to take advantage of this with play action to make them come up. Odell Beckham has the speed to run past anyone in the secondary. One false step by the Alabama safeties and they will be torched. Randle, Shepard, and Beckham all have the tools to work and get open. This is the thing, though. Alabama hides their deficiencies and errors in the backfield with the power of their front four. Anyone that can block the blitz usually can pick Alabama apart in the secondary. I honestly think that with LSU getting P.J. Lonergan back was huge for the LSU offensive line. It allows for T. Bob Hebert to move back to his natural position of guard for this game. LSU’s offensive line has been great all season long. IF they can block the Alabama blitz and give Lee or Jefferson time. The secondary could have a long night.
AJ McCarron may just decide this game. Now he has been playing ok, but he has not seen a secondary as talented as the one that he is going to see on Saturday. He made some bad decisions in each of the 8 games that he played in where against better athletes, they would have been interceptions. He is rarely coming off his first read and really didn’t get his feet wet against Tennessee until the second half. If Tennessee could have gotten some pressure on him, that game could have gone very badly for Alabama. Against LSU, they will get pressure. They also have some real life goons in that secondary. I really feel like this is the key to Alabama’s success. You can’t let Trent Richardson beat you. LSU WILL load the box and force McCarron to make throws against the best CB tandem in the country. I don’t think that it is going to happen.
Alabama also has a kicking game by committee. Defensive games usually come down to a FG. If these guys don’t get the job done, they could be the goat of this game and go down in history in the wrong way. Cody Mandell and Jay Williams will HAVE to make sure that they make their kicks on this big stage.
Now to LSU. They have their flaws as well.
All you hear about with LSU is their depth at defensive line and at defensive back. They rotate 10 defensive lineman and 8 defensive backs. Well you don’t hear much about their LBs. And there is a reason why you don’t. They aren’t that good. West Virginia threw for a lot of yards on LSU; 463 to be exact. What Dana Holgorsen did was attack the middle of the field. LSU’s LB core is not good in coverage. They really don’t get a lot of tackle opportunities anyhow because of the pressure that LSU gets with the front four. This is how Les Miles masks his deficiency on defense. Francois, the starting OLB only has 5 tackles on the year. Baker the staring MLB has 33, and Hatcher has 18. This won’t cut it against Alabama. This plays to Alabama’s strengths. They run crossing routes, seams with the TEs, outs with the TEs and square in routes with the WRs. If LSU can’t cover the intermediate stuff any better than they did against West Virginia, it can be a long game for them. Francois, Baker and Hatcher are going to have to play the game of their lives in order to stop Alabama from doing what they want to do. You don’t want to have a LB deficiency when you have the one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the country and in my eyes the best running back in the country playing against your team.
Another weakness in LSU is the slow starts. They can’t let Alabama stick around. Their depth has just worn teams out. They can’t expect for that to happen against Alabama ; 6-3 lead at halftime against Mississippi State, 14-0 halftime lead against Kentucky, 6-3 after the first quarter against Oregon. They have to come out. Establish the tone that they want to set and keep it rolling. If they get down against Alabama, it will be very hard to get out of a hole. This team is too good up front to not set the tempo. If Alabama steps up to the task of getting an early lead, LSU can struggle for the rest of the game.
One more thing that I think that Alabama will take advantage of is an aggressive defensive line. It is no question that LSU has the best defensive line in the country. But Alabama is the best screen team in the country. If LSU’s front four doesn’t watch it, they can drop the ball right behind them with a convoy of offensive lineman in front of Trent Richardson. Also, something else the McElwain needs to do is run the draw play. This is how you tone down a great defensive line; keep them off balance and worrying about ever scenario. You can’t let them dictate the game. If you do, McCarron will have a long night.
LSU has a definite advantage in the special team area. They covered Auburn’s Tre’ Mason and didn’t let him dictate the game. As good as Maze is, I don’t think that even he will be able to allude the excellent kick and punt coverage that LSU displays week in and week out. Brad Wing does a great job punting bombs down the field. He has 11 punts of 50 yards or better and is averaging 44.4 yards per punt.
At the end of the day, I just think that AJ McCarron will turn the ball over. This is going to be the deciding factor in the game. I think that the game against Oregon and the game against West Virginia were to prepare LSU for this game. I feel that they are just more big game ready. I have LSU winning this game, 24-17. I just think that LSU has the more complete team and will force a crucial turnover in a critical juncture in the game. AJ McCarron still has some growing to do. I just don’t think he can win that matchup against that secondary. Stay tuned for my post game analysis on this game. Follow me @4thandInchesMag on Twitter!
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